Analysts предрекает дальнейшее падение голосового ARPU и рост мобильного интернета

Most Western European mobile markets are yet to see a further decline in voice ARPU. However, progress in mobile internet should ensure total ARPU for the whole region grows by 10.2% between 2006 and 2012. Combined with a growth in active subscriptions, mobile service revenue will increase at a CAGR of 5.4% per year, reaching EUR195 billion in 2012, according to a new report, The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2007-2012, published by Analysys, the global advisers on telecoms, IT and media (http://research.analysys.com )

"In the majority of Western European countries, total ARPU has been on the decline, due primarily to decreasing voice ARPU," says report co-author Dr Yanli Suo-Saunders.

"Operators are facing increasing challenges in halting the decline of voice ARPU, which is likely to decrease further over the next three years, due primarily to ongoing downward pressure on mobile termination rates from regulators and intensifying price-based market competition."

"However, voice ARPU could stabilise or even recover slightly from 2011 onwards if operators can be more aggressive in migrating voice minutes from fixed to mobile via the help of femtocell solutions," explains co-author Emma Buckland.

Suo-Saunders says that, in general, mobile servcie revenue will increase steadily over the next five years, thanks to the growth in non-voice ARPU and active subscription base. "Mobile data will take up rapidly in the next few years, fuelled by an increasing adoption of open approach to the mobile Internet, flat-rate data pricing and ongoing deployment of HSPA," says Suo-Saunders.

"Furthermore, active subscription penetration is forecast to rise from 101.6% in 2006 to 120.1% in 2012, maintaining the trends towards multiple SIMs. This will provide the added stimulus to mobile service revenue." adds co-author Emma Buckland.

Key findings from the new report include:

• Mobile service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 5.4%, from EUR142.7 billion in 2006 to EUR195.3 billion in 2012
• Active mobile subscriber penetration will continue to grow, increasing from 101.6% in 2006 to 120.1% by 2012,
• reaching 490 million subscriptions in Western Europe. This growth will be mainly due to users owning multiple SIMs.
• Non-voice ARPU is expected to rise from EUR5.8 (19.3% of total ARPU) in 2006 to EUR10.8 (32.4% of total ARPU) by 2012.
• Voice ARPU is forecast to decline from EUR24.4 (80.7% of total ARPU) in 2006 to EUR22.6 (67.6% of total ARPU) by 2012.
• On balance, total ARPU will rise from EUR30.3 in 2006 to EUR33.4 by 2012, mainly fuelled by spend on non-voice data services.

This new report analyses current trends in the Western European mobile market, including strategies for high-speed packet access (HSPA) deployment, mobile broadcast television technologies, WiMAX, femtocells solutions and fixed-mobile convergence. It presents comprehensive forecasts for the region as a whole, as well as for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK covering the 2007-2012 period. Forecasts are broken down by subscriber numbers, ARPU, revenue, retail spend and average spend per user (ASPU) for four market segments (residential prepaid, residential contract, SMEs, large corporations), ten service categories (voice, SMS, email, other person-to-person messaging, data networking, browsing, paid infomation, entertainment, m-commerce and videotelephony) and four technology generations (2G, 2.5G, 3G and 3.5G).

The report is available to purchase online at http://research.analysys.com/store , priced at GBP1700 (approximately EUR2450). For more information, telephone Analysys on +44 (0) 1223 460600.

Analysys provides strategy and management consultancy, information services and start-up support throughout the telecommunications, IT and media sector.